Bitcoin: Hodln almost always profitable

The perma-bullish opinion-ECHO with Bitcoin-Content, from which dreams are made.

In the traditional financial sector, Bitcoin (BTC) is still viewed with suspicion. Only cautiously do courageous avant-gardists like MicroStrategy, Stone Ridge and Square venture out of cover and announce their Bitcoin acquisition. Yet an investment in „Orange Coin“ is more lucrative than all alternatives.

In this year alone, the price of the No. 1 crypto currency rose by around 126 percent from 7,195 US dollars to currently 16,200 US dollars. Thus there are according to the data of hardly chances to be with a Bitcoin Investment in the minus.

Percent of profitable days holding bitcoin: 99.4%.

Percentage of days a Bitcoin investment is profitable : 99.4%. Time to reach 100 percent.

This means reaching the all-time high. Logically, because as soon as Bitcoin cracks its historic all-time high of 19,600 US dollars, all investors who hold Bitcoin in their portfolio write green numbers. For Hodler, this becomes the famous I-told-you-so moment.
Preston Pysh makes the Bitcoin professor

Bitcoin grows cyclically. Instead of simply rising northward like the already proverbial rocket, the course follows boom-and-bust cycles. Why that is, hardly someone explains as well as Podcaster Preston Pysh.

But professor…

When you told me #Bitcoin was a Ponzi scheme you left out the part about the four-year halving cycle and two-week difficulty adjustment…

How does that work?

But Professor… When you told me Bitcoin was a pyramid scheme, you left out the part about the four-year Halving Cycle and the two-week Difficulty Adjustments…

According to this, the share price reacts more strongly than previously assumed to the supply shock by halving the inflation rate. According to Pysh, it is no coincidence that the time between two all-time highs is almost exactly four years, and thus the same period as the Halvings.

the price would go up. So if this is happening every four years, we should be able to see that in the price chart, right? Well, yeah, you can. Here’s an example. The last all-time time high (ATH) was on 11 DEC 2017 and the previous ATH was 1.477 days prior.

So if this happens every four years, we should be able to see it in the charts, right? Well, yes, you can. Here is an example. The last all-time high (ATH) was on December 11, 2017 and the previous ATH was 1,477 days earlier.

Before the halvings, inefficient miners are forced out of the market, so that after halving the rewards, profitable miners will have to sell less BTC to cover running costs. This leads to less price pressure on the open market for BTC, which in turn contributes to rising prices.

In the medium term, however, new investments by the miners will lead to a rise in the hash rate and thus in the competitive pressure on the miners, which in turn will increase the pressure to sell. A bear market is the consequence.

Those who are less interested in the connections than in the result: PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model models this correlation with remarkable precision.